![]() ![]() In fact, the latest NAEFS and GEFS all point to anomalous moisture transport heading into the Northeast with the NAEFS showing PWATs and v-wind component 2 to nearly 3 standard deviations above normal. Thus, the warming trend should keep most of the p-type as rain as deep moisture and impressive forcing for ascent and jet dynamics coincide to produce a widespread moderate to potentially even heavy rain event for the start of the work week. Given the strong dynamics involved upstream, ridging should amplify over the western Atlantic resulting in strong southerly flow and warm air advection over the East Coast. The discrepancies among the guidance remains on if the northern stream trough cuts off or remains an open wave which will affect timing and potential phasing between the northern and southern stream disturbances. Guidance continues to be in decent agreement, especially at this lead time, for a northern stream shortwave from the Central CONUS to amplify into potentially a nearly full-latitude trough and steer a disturbance from the Gulf up the East Coast. The main focus for the long term is on a very moisture rich disturbance that looks to originate from the Gulf of Mexico and track northward into the Northeast Sunday night through Monday night. Overnight lows only drop into the low to mid 30s. Otherwise, temperatures stay relatively mild as cloud coverage stays in place overnight. We will monitor trends and adjust as needed.Ī warm front extending off a sfc low in the Midwest tries to inch into the Northeast Friday night however, the sfc high pressure from the mid-Atlantic should finally build northward into the Northeast which should suppress precipitation and keep the region dry. ![]() However, despite the warm air advecting in aloft, if the boundary layer ends up being shallower as shown in some forecast soundings, temperatures may be a bit lower than current forecast shows. Some low 50s even possible in the mid-Hudson Valley. Temperatures should luckily be milder as the westerly flow advects a milder airmass from the Midwest overhead resulting in high temperatures reaching into the mid to upper 40s. Northwest winds remain breezy as well thanks to the sfc high stubbornly sitting over the mid- Atlantic while a sfc low tracks across northern Quebec. Favorable westerly flow off the lakes will advect lake moisture inland and support morning sun fading behind increasing clouds. Heading into Friday, sky coverage should increase as zonal and confluent flow develops aloft. Expect overnight lows only in the mid to upper 20s throughout eastern NY and western New England. Temperatures may not cool as much as they otherwise would have. While skies will remain mainly clear Thursday night, the pressure gradient overhead is still a bit tight as the 1035hPa+ sfc high stays to our south. With the ridge axis tracking overhead, skies should luckily be mostly sunny and with decent boundary layer mixing, temperatures should warm into the mid to upper 30s. Northwest winds will remain a bit breezy as the pressure gradient between the high to the south and the low over the Hudson Bay remains a bit tight. SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/ĭry and cooler weather expected Thursday across the Northeast as strong subsidence builds behind the parent trough and the aforementioned 1040hPa high builds northward from the mid- Atlantic. The winds should decrease in the early morning hours. Lows in the teens and lower 20s look on track in the cold advection regime. Expect clearing skies from northwest to southeast shortly before or just after midnight. Light snow accums of a dusting to a few tenths are possible in a few spots. Some retooling of the POP and WX grids based on radar. The activity should cease around midnight. The veering low-level winds to the west to northwest with the lowering inversion have allowed for the lake activity to become fragmented, diffuse and multi-banded. The remaining lake effect snow showers and flurries are now south of I-90 and north of I-84. The fair weather with moderating temperatures will continue into the weekend. We will have chillier temperatures tomorrow under mostly sunny skies, as high pressure builds in. Isolated to scattered snow showers and flurries will diminish early this evening with brisk winds gradually diminishing overnight. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 957 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2023
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